Oxford Analytics delivers in-depth research across the entire energy complex from crude oil and refined products to natural gas and power.
Through a combination of fundamental and econometric research we generate accurate price forecasts and original trading strategies. Our supply-demand models integrate broad macroeconomic trends with specific microeconomic indicators. Key industry statistics are gathered from a variety of global sources and their market impact is analysed over different intervals.
Oxford Analytics specialises in relative value trading strategies such as calendar spreads, crack spreads, and basis swaps. There is a significant seasonal component to energy demand while supply is vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. This generates trading opportunities in commodities spreads. Returns derived from changes to the shape and slope of forward curves represent a critical source of alpha for hedge funds.
Volatility research is another important focus area. We develop strategies to capture predictable patterns in volatility and skew. Volatility metrics are fully incorporated in our spot price models.
Oxford Analytics provides clients with outlooks, forecasts and strategies for global base metals markets.
Our fundamental analysis covers supply-demand balances, inventory movements, global trade flows, and macroeconomic drivers. We monitor mine, smelter, and refinery capacity and associated cost curves. On the consumption side we analyse developments in major end-use sectors such as manufacturing and construction. Proprietary leading economic indicators are used to project future demand.
Arbitrage opportunities across both the physical and futures markets are regularly evaluated. SHFE-LME spreads for aluminum, copper, and zinc are analysed along with their impact on Chinese trade patterns. Cash and carry trades which exploit anomalies along the term structure of the forward curve are identified as they arise.